Climate and Resiliency Wargaming, advancing from plan to action:

Marstel-Day uses integrated environmental scenario development theory to challenge stakeholders to consider multiple perspectives, identify methods for synergy among competing interests, and design tangible steps to develop strategies to enhance regional sustainability and environmental outcomes. Our strategic environmental planning tool provides an interactive simulation of events, strategies, policies, positions, and attitudes played out by key stakeholders to build collaboration and communication. Our tool enables players to envision and analyze a wide range of pathways that account for changing environmental and climatic conditions, such as drought, wildfire, and sea-level rise, while withstanding shocks and enduring disruptions. These environmental scenarios use proven planning processes based on complex system behavior, critical uncertainties, and sometimes unpredictable events or "black swans," that are developed into in-depth storylines. These storylines suggest how alternative futures might arise and where they might lead. Marstel-Day staff have also taken this process a step further and applied agent-based models (ABM) and probability modeling to scenario planning data in order to simulate the long-term effects of implementing alternative policy scenarios and landscape management plans to better inform decision-makers and improve the impact of decision-making. For example, these models were used to identify climate adaptation and sustainable forest management practices that would increase ecological services by $5B for a forest region.